Low complexity and mineral intensity allows energy technologies to scale quickly
With worldwide power generation expected to almost double by 2050. [1] Why is solarpower [2][3][4][5] growing fastest ?
These are my thoughts on the top 5 reasons why solar is growing fastest and scales so well.
1) Solar has the lowest mineral intensity [6] and least dependence on rare minerals [7] of any renewable solutions. Its two largest mineral inputs are copper and silicon. Copper can be replaced by other, cheaper and more abundant conductors. And silicon makes up almost 30% of the earths crust [8], so its not hard to find. This means that raw materials do not present cost or availability challenges.
2) Solar power generates lots of power in very little volume so it very efficiently uses materials. The active area in a solar cell is a a 100-150 nanometers thick [9]. This means a grape size piece of silicon is capable of producing more than a kilowatt of power [10].
3) Since the cells are usually much thicker to support manufacturing and assembly [11], this represents an opportunity for continued cost reduction.
4) Since solar cells do all of their magic within fractions of a micrometer of a surface, there are many competing manufacturing processes [12][13] available. Because there are so many ways to make solar cells, there are lots of opportunities to reduce costs and speed up production.
5) Solar can be flexibly deployed in any increment from watt to gigawatt scales. This simplifies financing and matching opportunity with demand.
These also benefit space based solar power (SBSP) and will help it scale!
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References
[1] - https://eneroutlook.enerdata.net/total-electricity-generation-projections.html
[2] - International Energy Agency (IEA) https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/share-of-cumulative-power-capacity-by-technology-2010-2027
[3] - International Energy Agency (IEA) - https://www.iea.org/reports/renewables-2022
[4] - International Energy Agency (IEA) - https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/ada7af90-e280-46c4-a577-df2e4fb44254/Renewables2022.pdf
[5] - https://www.linkedin.com/posts/activity-7084516740839178240-GMtu/
[6] - International Energy Agency (IEA) - https://www.iea.org/reports/the-role-of-critical-minerals-in-clean-energy-transitions/executive-summary
[7] - International Energy Agency (IEA) - https://www.iea.org/reports/the-role-of-critical-minerals-in-clean-energy-transitions/mineral-requirements-for-clean-energy-transitions
[8] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silicon
[9] - https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlelanding/2020/tc/d0tc03096a#:~:text=A%20key%20factor%20for%20these,roll%2Dto%2Droll%20processing
[10] - At 20% efficiency, and 1000 W/m^2 of incoming sunlight, a 100nm by 1 meter by 1 meter volume generates 200W. The power density is 2GW/m^3 or 2kW/cm^3.
[11] - https://www.pveducation.org/pvcdrom/design-of-silicon-cells/silicon-solar-cell-parameters
[12] - U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - https://www.energy.gov/eere/solar/solar-photovoltaic-manufacturing-basics#:~:text=The%20manufacturing%20typically%20starts%20with,interconnect%20pathway%20between%20adjacent%20cells
[13] - https://energy.mit.edu/news/solar-cells-printed-on-paper/
