Upmass to Orbit already exceeds what is necessary for SBSP

The European Space Agency - ESA latest space environment report, says "... 2020 marks the beginning of a new era in spaceflight" [1]. There are a lot of ways to see this. One is by looking at the total and rate of increase in annual launched mass. From 2020 onward, both of these metrics exceed any other period in spaceflight. [2][3].

Between 1957 and 1973, there was massive growth in launches with the Apollo program. Then for 45 years, progress stopped. In 2020, this changed. In 3 years the launch rate tripled. The key was perfecting reusable spacecraft and dropping the cost of access to space by more than 75%. [4]

And even lower costs are coming. Musk stated that Starship could drop launch costs to $10/kg. [5] Other launch providers like BLUE ORIGIN and Rocket Lab are chasing low cost launch. Additionally, alternatives to conventional rockets are progressing. SpinLaunch, Longshot Space Technologies Corporation, and Wave Motion Launch Corporation are demonstrating alternative approaches with the potential for even lower costs.

Looking at the history of systems placed in orbit, the impact of this cost reduction is clear. Previously, the largest systems in orbit were national and international projects. However, the largest mass now in orbit is the private Starlink constellation. Collectively, it is more than 3 times more massive than the ISS and expected to continue growing.

Technological progress drops costs. Jevon's paradox [6] suggests that demand for launch services will increase as activities that were previously uneconomical become viable. Space based solar power (SBSP) is one of these. The launch costs and capabilities already exist to make it happen. As launch prices drop, the case for SBSP only improves.

What do you think happens next?


[1] https://www.sdo.esoc.esa.int/environment_report/Space_Environment_Report_latest.pdf
[2] https://space.stackexchange.com/questions/88/what-is-the-total-mass-sent-into-orbit-over-all-history
[3] https://space.skyrocket.de/directories/chronology.htm
[4] https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cost-space-launches-low-earth-orbit
[5] https://wccftech.com/elon-musk-starship-launch-cost-reiterate/
[6] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox