NASA predicted 2020’s as when SBSP would be viable

Checking old forecasts is an interesting way to validate old ideas. The 1977 NASA - National Aeronautics and Space Administration study on Solar Power Satellite Concepts [1] included a graph of the expected reduction in solar power costs as seen 50 years ago. This projection was made when total cumulative production was less than 1MW.

Using their estimates of the learning curve, they projected a range of solar power prices as cumulative production reached a Terawatt. Adjusting for inflation and overlaying real prices [2], the prediction is amazingly accurate!

It is also interesting that they predicted that space based solar power (SBSP) would be economically viable when cumulative solar production was between 10 and 100GW. This condition was met 10 years ago. This reduction in solar cost along with the increase in global manufacturing capacity is another reason that space based solar can work today.


[1] 1977 NASA Solar Power Satellite Concept Evaluation: Vol 2 Detailed Report https://space.nss.org/wp-content/uploads/1977-Solar-Power-Satellite-Concept-Evaluation-Activities-Report.pdf
[2] Price graph from Our World in Data - https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices