Lessons From History on Timeline Estimations

Written By Ed Tate

How far off can experts be on estimating budgets and timing?

In 1903, Orville and Wilbur Wright became the first men to fly in a powered and controlled, heavier than air machine.

A little talked about story is the competition between the  Secretary of the Smithsonian, Samuel Pierpont Langley and the Wright brothers to be first to achieve powered flight.

Langley started with all of the advantages. He had government funding from the War Department equivalent to almost $2 million today. He had access to almost any expertise he needed. The budget allowed him to build one of the best power to weight ratio engine possible at the time. But the end result was, in front of dignitaries and other prominent men, his aircraft crashed into the Potomac twice. On Dec 8, 1903, he called it quits. He concluded that many more years were needed (and money too...) to make it work. The The New York Times went even further and said that it would take millions of years! [1]

Nine days later, at Kitty Hawk, the Wright brothers flew a distance of 120 feet in 12 seconds at a speed between 7 and 8 miles per hour. They achieved the first free, controlled, and sustained flight in a power-driven, heavier-than air machine in front of their only guest, a photographer. They accomplished this on a budget equivalent to $36,000 dollars today working after hours from their bicycle shop.

They achieved manned, heavier then air flight for 2% of the Langley's budget and years ahead of the schedule he confidently asserted was required to make it happen. They showed that ingenuity, hard work, and insight can beat the beat experts estimates.... by a lot.

Some things don't change so the lessons still apply.

Ed Tate
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