Launch Costs are improving faster than Moore’s Law
Wright's law is based on the observation that costs tend to drop as production increases [1]. This observation has been used and validated in many manufacturing industries from automotive, to semiconductors, to aerospace.
The recent drop in launch costs has been highlighted as incredible due to success of SpaceX with Falcon and soon Starship. However, launch costs also costs appear to follow Wright's law with a multi-decade detour.
By plotting launch costs [2] since 1957 versus cumulative mass [3] put into orbit on a log-log plot, a clear trend shows up for the best launch costs over the decades. If the rise in costs from the end of the Apollo program until SpaceX is viewed as a detour driven by a fundamental changes in the market and restructuring, then the best costs follow Wright's law with a learning rate of about 36%. This is an amazing amount! It beats the learning rate for solar at 20% [4], batteries at 24% [5] and semiconductors at 30% [6].
Even more interesting, if the price rises in the 1970's reflects a reset and retooling of the launch industry with the Space Shuttle as the first reusable spacecraft, then the cost reduction rate exceeds 90% per doubling in cumulative launch mass. This rivals the reduction in DNA sequencing costs [6].
These trends provide credibility to Elon Musk's claim that Startship can achieve $10/kg [7].
This has a huge implication for space based solar power. Space based solar plants are heavy and will weigh several hundred to several thousand tons. The launch costs represent a huge fraction of the deployment costs. Fortunately, the near term launch of multiple communications constellations and other large scale space projects accelerate the launch cost reductions. If launch costs fall at the rates implied by Wright's law, then business case for space based solar which is now viable [8][9][10], will be on track to become the lowest cost power option with a few years of first working satellite.
References
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Experience_curve_effects
[2] https://ttu-ir.tdl.org/bitstream/handle/2346/74082/ICES_2018_81.pdf
[3] https://space.stackexchange.com/questions/88/what-is-the-total-mass-sent-into-orbit-over-all-history
[4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cell
[5] https://mobilitynotes.com/a-good-review-of-lithium-ion-battery-cost-reductions/
[6] https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/guest-blog/moore-s-law-and-the-future-of-solid-state-electronics/
[7] https://wccftech.com/elon-musk-starship-launch-cost-reiterate/
[8] Frazer Nash study - https://www.fnc.co.uk/discover-frazer-nash/news/frazer-nash-space-based-solar-power-study-addresses-energy-vulnerability/
[9] Roland-Berger study https://www.rolandberger.com/en/Insights/Publications/Space-based-Solar-Power.html
[10] OliverWyman - https://www.oliverwyman.com/our-expertise/insights/2023/mar/a-space-based-energy-addition-to-move-the-world-to-net-zero.html
